资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Models for flow in environmental systems are subject to uncertainty. Models can thus be interpreted as hypotheses on the validity of the underlying model assumptions. One important source of uncertainty in models for flow and transport processes in the subsurface is the model concept. While uncertain model parameters or forcing terms can be captured as random processes and random fields, this type of uncertainty cannot be included into a model in a straightforward manner. This is particularly true if established model descriptions of a given process are not known or are still being debated. In this contribution, we outline several examples of subsurface flow and transport modeling where uncertainty of the model concept plays an important role. We discuss the need for the development of methods and standards to deal with this type of uncertainty in model hypothesis testing.