Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR020947 |
Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments | |
Berk, Mario; Spackova, Olga; Straub, Daniel | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines eventbased flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423299000039 |
WOS关键词 | FREQUENCY ESTIMATION ; CONTINUOUS SIMULATION ; STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY ; STATISTICS ; CURVES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21533 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Tech Univ Munich, Engn Risk Anal Grp, Munich, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Berk, Mario,Spackova, Olga,Straub, Daniel. Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(12). |
APA | Berk, Mario,Spackova, Olga,&Straub, Daniel.(2017).Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(12). |
MLA | Berk, Mario,et al."Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.12(2017). |
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