GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1002/2017WR022114
A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand
Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano
2018-03-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2018
卷号54期号:3页码:2057-2077
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Singapore
英文摘要

Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought recordthe Monsoon Asia Drought Atlasto reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment historye.g., regime-like behaviorthereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000430364900036
WOS关键词RIVER-BASIN ; TIME-SERIES ; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ; VARIABILITY ; MONSOON ; FLOOD ; PACIFIC ; SEASON ; ENSO ; IDENTIFICATION
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21527
专题资源环境科学
作者单位Singapore Univ Technol & Design, Pillar Engn Syst & Design, Singapore, Singapore
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Nguyen, Hung T. T.,Galelli, Stefano. A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(3):2057-2077.
APA Nguyen, Hung T. T.,&Galelli, Stefano.(2018).A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(3),2057-2077.
MLA Nguyen, Hung T. T.,et al."A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.3(2018):2057-2077.
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