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DOI10.1002/2017WR020528
Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications
Kavetski, Dmitri1,2; Fenicia, Fabrizio2; Reichert, Peter2; Albert, Carlo2
2018-06-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2018
卷号54期号:6页码:4059-4083
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia; Switzerland
英文摘要

This study considers Bayesian calibration of hydrological models using streamflow signatures and its implementation using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). If the modeling objective is to predict streamflow time series and associated uncertainty, a probabilistic model of streamflow must be specified but the inference equations must be developed in the signature domain. However, even starting from simple probabilistic models of streamflow time series, working in the signature domain makes the likelihood function difficult or impractical to evaluate (in particular, as it is unavailable in closed form). This challenge can be tackled using ABC, a general class of numerical algorithms for sampling from conditional distributions, such as (but not limited to) Bayesian posteriors given any calibration data. Using ABC does not avoid the requirement of Bayesian inference to specify a probability model of the data, but rather exchanges the requirement to evaluate the pdf of this model (needed to evaluate the likelihood function) by the requirement to sample model output realizations. For this reason ABC is attractive for inference in the signature domain. We clarify poorly understood aspects of ABC in the hydrological literature, including similarities and differences between ABC and GLUE, and comment on previous applications of ABC in hydrology. An error analysis of ABC approximation errors and their dependence on the tolerance is presented. An empirical case study is used to illustrate the impact of omitting the specification of a probabilistic model (and instead using a deterministic model within the ABC algorithm), and the impact of a coarse ABC tolerance.


英文关键词hydrological model calibration data signature uncertainty Bayesian inference Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) GLUE
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000440309900017
WOS关键词FLOW-DURATION CURVES ; CHAIN MONTE-CARLO ; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS ; UNGAUGED BASINS ; UNCERTAINTY ; INFERENCE ; PREDICTIONS ; STREAMFLOW ; GLUE ; OPTIMIZATION
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21523
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Adelaide, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Adelaide, SA, Australia;
2.Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, Dubendorf, Switzerland
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GB/T 7714
Kavetski, Dmitri,Fenicia, Fabrizio,Reichert, Peter,et al. Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(6):4059-4083.
APA Kavetski, Dmitri,Fenicia, Fabrizio,Reichert, Peter,&Albert, Carlo.(2018).Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(6),4059-4083.
MLA Kavetski, Dmitri,et al."Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.6(2018):4059-4083.
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