Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR020528 |
Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications | |
Kavetski, Dmitri1,2; Fenicia, Fabrizio2; Reichert, Peter2; Albert, Carlo2 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:6页码:4059-4083 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | This study considers Bayesian calibration of hydrological models using streamflow signatures and its implementation using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). If the modeling objective is to predict streamflow time series and associated uncertainty, a probabilistic model of streamflow must be specified but the inference equations must be developed in the signature domain. However, even starting from simple probabilistic models of streamflow time series, working in the signature domain makes the likelihood function difficult or impractical to evaluate (in particular, as it is unavailable in closed form). This challenge can be tackled using ABC, a general class of numerical algorithms for sampling from conditional distributions, such as (but not limited to) Bayesian posteriors given any calibration data. Using ABC does not avoid the requirement of Bayesian inference to specify a probability model of the data, but rather exchanges the requirement to evaluate the pdf of this model (needed to evaluate the likelihood function) by the requirement to sample model output realizations. For this reason ABC is attractive for inference in the signature domain. We clarify poorly understood aspects of ABC in the hydrological literature, including similarities and differences between ABC and GLUE, and comment on previous applications of ABC in hydrology. An error analysis of ABC approximation errors and their dependence on the tolerance is presented. An empirical case study is used to illustrate the impact of omitting the specification of a probabilistic model (and instead using a deterministic model within the ABC algorithm), and the impact of a coarse ABC tolerance. |
英文关键词 | hydrological model calibration data signature uncertainty Bayesian inference Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) GLUE |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440309900017 |
WOS关键词 | FLOW-DURATION CURVES ; CHAIN MONTE-CARLO ; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS ; UNGAUGED BASINS ; UNCERTAINTY ; INFERENCE ; PREDICTIONS ; STREAMFLOW ; GLUE ; OPTIMIZATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21523 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Adelaide, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2.Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, Dubendorf, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kavetski, Dmitri,Fenicia, Fabrizio,Reichert, Peter,et al. Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(6):4059-4083. |
APA | Kavetski, Dmitri,Fenicia, Fabrizio,Reichert, Peter,&Albert, Carlo.(2018).Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(6),4059-4083. |
MLA | Kavetski, Dmitri,et al."Signature-Domain Calibration of Hydrological Models Using Approximate Bayesian Computation: Theory and Comparison to Existing Applications".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.6(2018):4059-4083. |
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