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DOI | 10.1002/2016WR020079 |
Uncertainty analysis and risk-based design of detention basin without damage function | |
Tung, Yeou-Koung | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Taiwan |
英文摘要 | Risk-based analysis provides an economically defensible framework for determining the optimal design of hydrosystems with the minimum total cost including project cost (installation plus operation/maintenance/repair) and failure-induced expected damage cost. However, failure-related damage function with good quality may not be widely available in practical applications for assessing annual expected damage cost. In addition to aleatory uncertainty representing natural randomness of hydrologic events, there exists a variety of epistemic uncertainties due to knowledge deficiency from the use of inadequate models, inaccurate model parameters, etc. The presence of epistemic uncertainties could affect the loads and capacity of hydrosystem facilities which, in turn, would affect the value of failure-induced physical performance indicators. Using detention basin design as an example, this paper presents a systematic framework to integrate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties for the risk-based design under the condition of no monetary damage function. For illustration, aleatory uncertainty due to randomness of rainfall intensity and epistemic uncertainties caused by runoff coefficient and curve number are considered in risk-based design of an example detention basin. Plain Language Summary Due to the presence of uncertainties from natural randomness of hydrologic events and knowledge deficiency, risk-based procedure provides a economically and logically defensible framework for determining the optimal design of hydrosystems with the minimum total cost including project cost and failure induced damage cost. However, such framework requires failure related damage information with good quality, which may not be widely available in practical applications. To extend the generality and usefulness the risk-based procedure, this paper presents a viable framework to integrate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in risk-based design under the condition of without monetary damage information. Design of stormwater detention basin is used as an example to illustrate the methodology. |
英文关键词 | risk-based design uncertainty analysis detention basin modified rational method benefit-cost analysis |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403712100007 |
WOS关键词 | WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY ; REDUCTION PROJECT EVALUATION ; LIFE-CYCLE PERFORMANCE ; POINT ESTIMATE METHODS ; MOMENTS ; SYSTEMS ; FLOODS ; COSTS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21395 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Disaster Prevent & Water Environm Res Ctr, Hsinchu, Taiwan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tung, Yeou-Koung. Uncertainty analysis and risk-based design of detention basin without damage function[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(5). |
APA | Tung, Yeou-Koung.(2017).Uncertainty analysis and risk-based design of detention basin without damage function.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(5). |
MLA | Tung, Yeou-Koung."Uncertainty analysis and risk-based design of detention basin without damage function".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.5(2017). |
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