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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0097.1 |
Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere Climate Variability Associated with the Seasonal Breakdown of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex | |
Byrne, Nicholas J.1; Shepherd, Theodore G.1; Woollings, Tim2; Plumb, R. Alan3 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:18 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA |
英文摘要 | Statistical models of climate generally regard climate variability as anomalies about a climatological seasonal cycle, which are treated as a stationary stochastic process plus a long-term seasonally dependent trend. However, the climate system has deterministic aspects apart from the climatological seasonal cycle and long-term trends, and the assumption of stationary statistics is only an approximation. The variability of the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation in the period encompassing late spring and summer is an important climate phenomenon and has been the subject of numerous studies. It is shown here, using reanalysis data, that this variability is rendered highly nonstationary by the organizing influence of the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which breaks time symmetry. It is argued that the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation variability during this period is best viewed as interannual variability in the transition between the springtime and summertime regimes induced by variability in the vortex breakdown. In particular, the apparent long-term poleward jet shift during the early-summer season can be more simply understood as a delay in the equatorward shift associated with this regime transition. The implications of such a perspective for various open questions are discussed. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408613400002 |
WOS关键词 | ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE ; ANNULAR MODES ; CIRCULATION ; TRENDS ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21257 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Univ Oxford, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England; 3.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Byrne, Nicholas J.,Shepherd, Theodore G.,Woollings, Tim,et al. Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere Climate Variability Associated with the Seasonal Breakdown of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(18). |
APA | Byrne, Nicholas J.,Shepherd, Theodore G.,Woollings, Tim,&Plumb, R. Alan.(2017).Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere Climate Variability Associated with the Seasonal Breakdown of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(18). |
MLA | Byrne, Nicholas J.,et al."Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere Climate Variability Associated with the Seasonal Breakdown of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.18(2017). |
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