Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0131.1 |
Seasonal Prediction of Winter Precipitation Anomalies over Central Southwest Asia: A Canonical Correlation Analysis Approach | |
Rana, Sapna1; Renwick, James1; McGregor, James1; Singh, Ankita2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:2页码:727-741 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand; India |
英文摘要 | Central southwest Asia (CSWA; 20 degrees-47 degrees N, 40 degrees-85 degrees E) is a water-stressed region prone to significant variations in precipitation during its winter precipitation season of November-April. Wintertime precipitation is crucial for regional water resources, agriculture, and livelihood; however, in recent years droughts have been a notable feature of CSWA interannual variability. Here, the predictability of CSWA wintertime precipitation is explored based on its time-lagged relationship with the preceding months' (September-October) sea surface temperature (SST), using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) approach. For both periods, results indicate that for CSWA much of the seasonal predictability arises from SST variations in the Pacific related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Additional sources of skill that play a weaker predictive role include long-term SST trends, North Atlantic variability, and regional teleconnections. CCA cross-validation skill shows that the regional potential predictability has a strong dependency on the ENSO phenomenon, and the strengthening (weakening) of this relationship yields forecasts with higher (lower) predictive skill. This finding is validated by the mean cross-validated correlation skill of 0.71 and 0.38 obtained for the 1980/81-2014/15 and 1950/51-2014/15 CCA analyses, respectively. The development of cold (warm) ENSO conditions during September-October, in combination with cold (warm) PDO conditions, is associated with a northward (southward) shift of the jet stream and a strong tendency of negative (positive) winter precipitation anomalies; other sources of predictability influence the regional precipitation directly during non-ENSO years or by modulating the impact of ENSO teleconnection based on their relative strengths. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425164800014 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; ENSO ; DROUGHT ; CLIMATE ; IMPACT ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21250 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Geog Environm & Earth Sci, Wellington, New Zealand; 2.Indian Inst Technol, Sch Earth Ocean & Climate Sci, Bhubaneswar, Orissa, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rana, Sapna,Renwick, James,McGregor, James,et al. Seasonal Prediction of Winter Precipitation Anomalies over Central Southwest Asia: A Canonical Correlation Analysis Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(2):727-741. |
APA | Rana, Sapna,Renwick, James,McGregor, James,&Singh, Ankita.(2018).Seasonal Prediction of Winter Precipitation Anomalies over Central Southwest Asia: A Canonical Correlation Analysis Approach.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(2),727-741. |
MLA | Rana, Sapna,et al."Seasonal Prediction of Winter Precipitation Anomalies over Central Southwest Asia: A Canonical Correlation Analysis Approach".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.2(2018):727-741. |
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