GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1029/2018WR023325
Predicting Runoff Signatures Using Regression and Hydrological Modeling Approaches
Zhang, Yongqiang1; Chiew, Francis H. S.1; Li, Ming2; Post, David1
2018-10-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2018
卷号54期号:10页码:7859-7878
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

Accurate prediction of runoff signatures is important for numerous hydrological and water resources applications. However, there are lack of comprehensive evaluations of various approaches for predicting hydrological signatures. This study, for the first time, introduces regression tree ensemble approach and compares it with other three widely used approaches (multiple linear regression, multiple log-transformed linear regression, and hydrological modeling) for assessing prediction accuracy of 13 runoff characteristics or signatures, using a large data set from 605 catchments across Australia. The climate, in particular, mean annual precipitation and aridity index, has the most significant influence on the runoff signatures. Physical catchment attributes including forest ratio, slope, and soil water holding capacity also have significant influence (p < 0.05) on the runoff signatures. All four approaches can predict the long-term average and high flow signatures accurately. The regression approaches can also well predict majority of the other runoff signatures, with the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency larger than 0.60. The regression tree ensemble outperforms the two linear regressions in predicting signatures of flow dynamics. The hydrological models, calibrated to one specific objective criterion, cannot predict many of the runoff signatures, particularly those reflecting low flows and flow dynamics. This is because in most hydrological model applications, the simulations allow satisfactory predictions of long-term average and high flow signatures. In applications where a specific runoff signature is needed, regression relationships that directly relate that runoff signature to catchment attributes give the best predictions. Here the regression tree ensemble is overall best and offers significant potential, being able to predict most of the runoff signatures very well.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000450726000040
WOS关键词FLOW DURATION CURVE ; LEAF-AREA INDEX ; UNGAUGED CATCHMENTS ; SPATIAL INTERPOLATION ; NON-STATIONARITY ; STREAMFLOW ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; REGIONALIZATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; CLIMATE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
被引频次:72[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21158
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia;
2.CSIRO Data 61, Wembley, WA, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Yongqiang,Chiew, Francis H. S.,Li, Ming,et al. Predicting Runoff Signatures Using Regression and Hydrological Modeling Approaches[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(10):7859-7878.
APA Zhang, Yongqiang,Chiew, Francis H. S.,Li, Ming,&Post, David.(2018).Predicting Runoff Signatures Using Regression and Hydrological Modeling Approaches.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(10),7859-7878.
MLA Zhang, Yongqiang,et al."Predicting Runoff Signatures Using Regression and Hydrological Modeling Approaches".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.10(2018):7859-7878.
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