Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0638.1 |
Intermember Variability of the Summer Northwest Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone in the Ensemble Forecast | |
Ma, Jing1,2; Xie, Shang-Ping2,3,4; Xu, Haiming1 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | The accurate prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) remains a major challenge for the climate research community. The northwest Pacific (NWP) subtropical anticyclone (NWPSA) is the dominant feature of the EASM low-level circulation variability. This study identifies two coupled modes between intermember anomalies of the NWPSA and sea surface temperature (SST). The first mode features SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific. This tropical Pacific mode has little impact on East Asian climate. The second mode features a strong coupling between SST in the north Indian Ocean (NIO)-NWP and NWPSA, with large impacts on East Asia. This resembles the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode of interannual variability. Major differences exist in temporal evolution of the intermember SST spread between the equatorial Pacific and NIO. In the equatorial Pacific, the intermember SST spread grows gradually with lead time, while the spread of SST and low-level zonal wind grow rapidly from May to June in the NIO. The rapid growth over the NIO is due to positive feedback arising from the coupling between intermember anomalies of SST and winds. In post-El Nino summer, the intermember spread in equatorial Pacific SST forecast represents the variations in the timing of the El Nino phase transition. The late decay of El Nino relates to SST cooling and an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the South China Sea (SCS) but with little impact on East Asian climate. Thus, a better representation of the IPOC mode of regional ocean-atmosphere interaction over the NIO-NWP holds the key to improving the reliability of seasonal forecast of East Asian climate. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000401006100022 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL SST ANOMALIES ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; EL-NINO ; RELATIVE IMPORTANCE ; WESTERN PACIFIC ; ENSO ; MONSOON ; CLIMATE ; ATLANTIC ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21104 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, KLME, ILCEC, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA; 3.Ocean Univ China, CIMST, Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 4.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ma, Jing,Xie, Shang-Ping,Xu, Haiming. Intermember Variability of the Summer Northwest Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone in the Ensemble Forecast[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(10). |
APA | Ma, Jing,Xie, Shang-Ping,&Xu, Haiming.(2017).Intermember Variability of the Summer Northwest Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone in the Ensemble Forecast.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(10). |
MLA | Ma, Jing,et al."Intermember Variability of the Summer Northwest Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone in the Ensemble Forecast".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.10(2017). |
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