Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR023209 |
A General Methodology for Climate-Informed Approaches to Long-Term Flood ProjectionIllustrated With the Ohio River Basin | |
Schlef, Katherine E.1; Francois, Baptiste2; Robertson, Andrew W.3; Brown, Casey2 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:11页码:9321-9341 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Estimating future hydrologic floods under nonstationary climate is a key challenge for flood management. Climate-informed approaches to long-term flood projection are an appealing alternative to traditional modeling chains. This work formalizes climate-informed approaches into a general methodology consisting of four steps: (1) selection of predictand representing extreme events, (2) identification of credible large-scale predictors that mechanistically control the occurrence and magnitude of the predictand, (3) development of a statistical model relating the predictors to the predictand, and (4) projection of the predictand by forcing the model with predictor projections. These four steps, developed from a review of the current literature, are demonstrated for multiple gages in the northwest Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest as a case study. Floods are defined as annual maximum series events in January through April and are linked to geopotential height and soil moisture predictors in a Bayesian linear regression model. The projections generally show a slight decrease in future flood magnitude and demonstrate the transparency of the climate-informed approach. An initial step for more general application across the United States and remaining challenges associated with climate-informed flood projection are discussed. |
英文关键词 | flood climate change climate-informed nonstationary Ohio River Basin projection |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453369400042 |
WOS关键词 | CONTIGUOUS UNITED-STATES ; NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ; RESERVOIR INDEXES ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; CMIP5 ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21030 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Consortium Univ Adv Hydrol Sci Inc, Cambridge, MA 02176 USA; 2.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Amherst, MA 01003 USA; 3.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schlef, Katherine E.,Francois, Baptiste,Robertson, Andrew W.,et al. A General Methodology for Climate-Informed Approaches to Long-Term Flood ProjectionIllustrated With the Ohio River Basin[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(11):9321-9341. |
APA | Schlef, Katherine E.,Francois, Baptiste,Robertson, Andrew W.,&Brown, Casey.(2018).A General Methodology for Climate-Informed Approaches to Long-Term Flood ProjectionIllustrated With the Ohio River Basin.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(11),9321-9341. |
MLA | Schlef, Katherine E.,et al."A General Methodology for Climate-Informed Approaches to Long-Term Flood ProjectionIllustrated With the Ohio River Basin".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.11(2018):9321-9341. |
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