资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Permafrost in high alpine catchments is expected to disappear in future warmer climates, but the hydrological impact of such changes is poorly understood. This paper investigates the flow paths and the hydrological response in a 5 km(2) high alpine catchment in the otztal Alps, Austria, and their changes resulting from a loss of permafrost. Spatial permafrost distribution, depth to the permafrost table, and depth to the bedrock were mapped by geophysical methods. Catchment runoff and meteorological variables were monitored from June 2008 to December 2011. These data were used along with field experience to infer conceptual schemes of the dominant flow paths in four types of hillslopes that differ in terms of their unconsolidated sediment characteristics and the presence of permafrost. The four types are: talus fans, rock glaciers, Little Ice Age (LIA) till, and pre-LIA till. Permafrost tends to occur in the first three types, but is absent from pre-LIA till. Based on these flow path concepts, runoff was simulated for present conditions and for future conditions when permafrost has completely disappeared. The simulations indicate that complete disappearance of permafrost will reduce flood peaks by up to 17% and increase runoff during recession by up to 19%. It is argued that change modeling needs to account for flow path types and their changes based on geophysical surveys and field investigations.