Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1 |
Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble | |
McKinnon, Karen A.; Deser, Clara | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:17页码:6783-6802 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Recent observed climate trends result from a combination of external radiative forcing and internally generated variability. To better contextualize these trends and forecast future ones, it is necessary to properly model the spatiotemporal properties of the internal variability. Here, a statistical model is developed for terrestrial temperature and precipitation, and global sea level pressure, based upon monthly gridded observational datasets that span 1921-2014. The model is used to generate a synthetic ensemble, each member of which has a unique sequence of internal variability but with statistical properties similar to the observational record. This synthetic ensemble is combined with estimates of the externally forced response from climate models to produce an observational large ensemble (OBS-LE). The 1000 members of the OBS-LE display considerable diversity in their 50-yr regional climate trends, indicative of the importance of internal variability on multidecadal time scales. For example, unforced atmospheric circulation trends associated with the northern annular mode can induce winter temperature trends over Eurasia that are comparable in magnitude to the forced trend over the past 50 years. Similarly, the contribution of internal variability to winter precipitation trends is large across most of the globe, leading to substantial regional uncertainties in the amplitude and, in some cases, the sign of the 50-yr trend. The OBS-LE provides a real-world counterpart to initial-condition model ensembles. The approach could be expanded to using paleo-proxy data to simulate longer-term variability. |
英文关键词 | Atmospheric circulation ENSO Statistical techniques Ensembles Climate variability Trends |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439445100001 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE-TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION ; HEMISPHERE ANNULAR MODE ; NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE ; SEA-ICE TRENDS ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; DYNAMICAL ADJUSTMENT ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS ; TIME-SERIES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20955 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McKinnon, Karen A.,Deser, Clara. Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(17):6783-6802. |
APA | McKinnon, Karen A.,&Deser, Clara.(2018).Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(17),6783-6802. |
MLA | McKinnon, Karen A.,et al."Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.17(2018):6783-6802. |
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