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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0899.1 |
CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones with Associated Extreme Winds | |
Chang, Edmund Kar-Man | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:16页码:6527-6542 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In this study, 19 simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been analyzed to examine how winter cyclones producing extreme near-surface winds are projected to change. Extreme wind thresholds correspond to a top 5 or top 1 cyclone per winter month in the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH). The results show that CMIP5 models project a significant decrease in the number of such cyclones, with a 19-model mean decrease of about 17% for the entire NH toward the end of the twenty-first century, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario. The projected decrease is larger in the Atlantic (about 21%). Over the Pacific, apart from an overall decrease (about 13%), there is a northeastward shift in the extreme cyclone activity. Less decrease is found in the frequency of cyclones producing extreme winds at 850 hPa (about 5% hemisphere-wide), with models mainly projecting a northeastward shift in the Pacific. These results suggest that 850-hPa wind changes may not be a good proxy for near-surface wind changes. These results contrast with those for the Southern Hemisphere, in which the frequency of cyclones with extreme winds are projected to significantly increase in all four seasons. |
英文关键词 | Northern Hemisphere Extratropical cyclones Extreme events Wind Climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439546000002 |
WOS关键词 | STORM TRACKS ; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES ; FUTURE PROJECTIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNITED-STATES ; IMPACTS ; MODELS ; AMPLIFICATION ; GREENLAND ; ATLANTIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20953 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chang, Edmund Kar-Man. CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones with Associated Extreme Winds[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(16):6527-6542. |
APA | Chang, Edmund Kar-Man.(2018).CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones with Associated Extreme Winds.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(16),6527-6542. |
MLA | Chang, Edmund Kar-Man."CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones with Associated Extreme Winds".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.16(2018):6527-6542. |
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