Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0906.1 |
Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes during the Twenty-First Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone-Relative Approach | |
Zhang, Zhenhai; Colle, Brian A. | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:21 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the future change in precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones over eastern North America and the western Atlantic during the cool season (November-March) through the twenty-first century. A cyclone-relative approach is applied to 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in order to isolate precipitation changes for different cyclone intensities and storm life cycle, as well as determine the relevant physical processes associated with these changes. The historical analysis suggests that models with better performance in predicting extratropical cyclones tend to have smaller precipitation errors, and the ensemble mean has a smaller mean absolute error than the individual models. By the late-twenty-first century, the precipitation amount associated with cyclones increases by 5%-25% over the U.S. East Coast, with about 90% of the increase from the relatively strong (<990 hPa) and moderate (990-1005 hPa) cyclones. Meanwhile, the precipitation rate increases by 15%-25% over the U. S. East Coast for the strong cyclone centers, which is larger than the moderate and weak cyclones. The relatively strong cyclones just inland of the U.S. East Coast have the largest increase (-30%) in precipitation rate, since these centers over land have the largest increase in low-level temperature (and moisture), a decrease (5%13%) in the static stability, and an increase (-5%) in upward motion during the late-twenty-first century. This east coast region also has an increase in cyclone intensity in the future even though there is a decrease in lowlevel baroclinicity, which suggests that the latent heat release from heavier precipitation contributes to this storm deepening. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414646000011 |
WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; CMIP5 MODELS ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES ; SEASON PRECIPITATION ; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; WARMER CLIMATE ; SIMULATIONS ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20929 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Zhenhai,Colle, Brian A.. Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes during the Twenty-First Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone-Relative Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(21). |
APA | Zhang, Zhenhai,&Colle, Brian A..(2017).Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes during the Twenty-First Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone-Relative Approach.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(21). |
MLA | Zhang, Zhenhai,et al."Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes during the Twenty-First Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone-Relative Approach".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.21(2017). |
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