Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0366.1 |
Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America | |
Zhang, Honghai1,2; Delworth, Thomas L.2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:7页码:2579-2597 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Regional hydroclimate changes on decadal time scales contain substantial natural variability. This presents a challenge for the detection of anthropogenically forced hydroclimate changes on these spatiotemporal scales because the signal of anthropogenic changes is modest, compared to the noise of natural variability. However, previous studies have shown that this signal-to-noise ratio can be greatly improved in a large model ensemble where each member contains the same signal but different noise. Here, using multiple state-of-the-art large ensembles from two climate models, the authors quantitatively assess the detectability of anthropogenically caused decadal shifts in precipitation-minus-evaporation (PmE) mean state against natural variability, focusing on North America during 2000-50. Anthropogenic forcing is projected to cause detectable (signal larger than noise) shifts in PmE mean state relative to the 1950-99 climatology over 50%-70% of North America by 2050. The earliest detectable signals include, during November-April, a moistening over northeastern North America and a drying over southwestern North America and, during MayOctober, a drying over central North America. Different processes are responsible for these signals. Changes in submonthly transient eddy moisture fluxes account for the northeastern moistening and central drying, while monthly atmospheric circulation changes explain the southwestern drying. These model findings suggest that despite the dominant role of natural internal variability on decadal time scales, anthropogenic shifts in PmE mean state can be detected over most of North America before the middle of the current century. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429456500003 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; STORM TRACKS ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; ASTERISK ; DROUGHT ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20923 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Honghai,Delworth, Thomas L.. Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(7):2579-2597. |
APA | Zhang, Honghai,&Delworth, Thomas L..(2018).Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(7),2579-2597. |
MLA | Zhang, Honghai,et al."Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.7(2018):2579-2597. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论