Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0353.1 |
High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates | |
McLay, J. G.1; Hendricks, E. A.2; Moskaitis, J.1 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:2页码:309-334 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt approximate to 0.5144 m s(-1)) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make landfall at >64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme climate may be approximately 190 kt. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Pacific Ocean Hurricanes typhoons Climate change Mesoscale models Numerical analysis modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453683400001 |
WOS关键词 | MIXED-LAYER ; CMIP5 ; INTENSITY ; FREQUENCY ; MODEL ; CLIMATOLOGY ; PROJECTIONS ; HURRICANES ; PREDICTION ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20906 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Naval Res Lab, Monterey, CA USA; 2.US Naval Postgrad Sch, Dept Meteorol, Monterey, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McLay, J. G.,Hendricks, E. A.,Moskaitis, J.. High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(2):309-334. |
APA | McLay, J. G.,Hendricks, E. A.,&Moskaitis, J..(2019).High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(2),309-334. |
MLA | McLay, J. G.,et al."High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.2(2019):309-334. |
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