GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0353.1
High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates
McLay, J. G.1; Hendricks, E. A.2; Moskaitis, J.1
2019
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2019
卷号32期号:2页码:309-334
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt approximate to 0.5144 m s(-1)) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make landfall at >64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme climate may be approximately 190 kt.


英文关键词Atmosphere Pacific Ocean Hurricanes typhoons Climate change Mesoscale models Numerical analysis modeling
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000453683400001
WOS关键词MIXED-LAYER ; CMIP5 ; INTENSITY ; FREQUENCY ; MODEL ; CLIMATOLOGY ; PROJECTIONS ; HURRICANES ; PREDICTION ; IMPACT
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20906
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Naval Res Lab, Monterey, CA USA;
2.US Naval Postgrad Sch, Dept Meteorol, Monterey, CA USA
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McLay, J. G.,Hendricks, E. A.,Moskaitis, J.. High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(2):309-334.
APA McLay, J. G.,Hendricks, E. A.,&Moskaitis, J..(2019).High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(2),309-334.
MLA McLay, J. G.,et al."High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.2(2019):309-334.
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