资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The extratropical influence on the observed events of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability from 1948 to 2015 is assessed by constraining the extratropical atmospheric variability in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) using the regional coupled data assimilation (RCDA) method. The ensemble-mean ENSO response to extratropical atmospheric forcing, which is systematically and quantitatively studied through a series of RCDA experiments, indicates robust extratropical influence on some observed ENSO events. Furthermore, an event-by-event quantitative analysis shows significant differences of the extratropical influence among the observed ENSO events, both in its own strength and in its relation to tropical precursors such as the equatorial Pacific heat content anomaly. This study provides the first dynamic quantitative assessment of the extratropical influence on observed ENSO variability on an event-by-event basis.