GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0054.1
Do Statistical Pattern Corrections Improve Seasonal Climate Predictions in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Models?
Barnston, Anthony G.1; Tippett, Michael K.2,3
2017-10-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:20
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Saudi Arabia
英文摘要

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA)-based statistical corrections are applied to seasonal mean precipitation and temperature hindcasts of the individual models from the North American Multimodel Ensemble project to correct biases in the positions and amplitudes of the predicted large-scale anomaly patterns. Corrections are applied in 15 individual regions and then merged into globally corrected forecasts. The CCA correction dramatically improves the RMS error skill score, demonstrating that model predictions contain correctable systematic biases in mean and amplitude. However, the corrections do not materially improve the anomaly correlation skills of the individual models for most regions, seasons, and lead times, with the exception of October-December precipitation in Indonesia and eastern Africa. Models with lower uncorrected correlation skill tend to benefit more from the correction, suggesting that their lower skills may be due to correctable systematic errors. Unexpectedly, corrections for the globe as a single region tend to improve the anomaly correlation at least as much as the merged corrections to the individual regions for temperature, and more so for precipitation, perhaps due to better noise filtering. The lack of overall improvement in correlation may imply relatively mild errors in large-scale anomaly patterns. Alternatively, there may be such errors, but the period of record is too short to identify them effectively but long enough to find local biases in mean and amplitude. Therefore, statistical correction methods treating individual locations (e.g., multiple regression or principal component regression) may be recommended for today's coupled climate model forecasts. The findings highlight that the performance of statistical postprocessing can be grossly overestimated without thorough cross validation or evaluation on independent data.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000411438000017
WOS关键词FALSE DISCOVERY RATE ; FORECAST SKILL ; FIELD SIGNIFICANCE ; SYSTEMATIC-ERROR ; PRECIPITATION ; HEMISPHERE ; ATMOSPHERE ; REGRESSION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20774
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Palisades, NY 10964 USA;
2.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA;
3.King Abdulaziz Univ, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Dept Meteorol, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
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Barnston, Anthony G.,Tippett, Michael K.. Do Statistical Pattern Corrections Improve Seasonal Climate Predictions in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Models?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(20).
APA Barnston, Anthony G.,&Tippett, Michael K..(2017).Do Statistical Pattern Corrections Improve Seasonal Climate Predictions in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Models?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(20).
MLA Barnston, Anthony G.,et al."Do Statistical Pattern Corrections Improve Seasonal Climate Predictions in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Models?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.20(2017).
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