Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0509.1 |
Assessing the Impact of Model Biases on the Projected Increase in Frequency of Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events | |
Wang, Guojian1,2; Cai, Wenju1,2; Santoso, Agus3,4 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | For many generations, models simulate an Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) that is overly large in amplitude. The possible impact of this systematic bias on climate projections, including a projected frequency increase in extreme positive IOD (pIOD) using a rainfall-based definition, has attracted attention. In particular, a recent study suggests that the increased frequency is an artifact of the overly large IOD amplitude. In contrast, here the opposite is found. Through intermodel ensemble regressions, the present study shows that models producing a high frequency in the present-day climate generate a small future frequency increase. The frequency is associated with the mean equatorial west-minus-east sea surface temperature (SST) gradient: the greater the gradient, the greater the frequency because it is easier to shift convection to the west, which characterizes an extreme pIOD. A greater present-day gradient is associated with a present-day shallower thermocline, lower SSTs, and lower rainfall in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). Because there is an inherent limit for a maximum rainfall reduction and for the impact on surface cooling by a shallowing of an already shallow mean EEIO thermocline, there is a smaller increase in frequency in models with a shallower present-day EEIO thermocline. Given that a bias of overly shallow EEIO thermocline and overly low EEIO SSTs and rainfall is common in models, the future frequency increase should be underestimated, opposite to an implied overestimation resulting from the overly large IOD amplitude bias. Therefore, correcting the projected frequency from a single bias, without considering other biases that are present, is not appropriate and should be avoided. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399679900003 |
WOS关键词 | EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EMERGENT CONSTRAINTS ; WARMING HIATUS ; SHORT RAINS ; CMIP5 ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; FEEDBACKS ; DYNAMICS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20746 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere Flagship, Aspendale, Vic, Australia; 2.Ocean Univ China, Qingdao Collaborat Innovat Ctr Marine Sci & Techn, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 3.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 4.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Guojian,Cai, Wenju,Santoso, Agus. Assessing the Impact of Model Biases on the Projected Increase in Frequency of Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(8). |
APA | Wang, Guojian,Cai, Wenju,&Santoso, Agus.(2017).Assessing the Impact of Model Biases on the Projected Increase in Frequency of Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(8). |
MLA | Wang, Guojian,et al."Assessing the Impact of Model Biases on the Projected Increase in Frequency of Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.8(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论