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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0039.1 |
Representation of Boreal Winter MJO and Its Teleconnection in a Dynamical Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System | |
Kim, Hyerim1; Lee, Myong-In1; Kim, Daehyun2; Kang, Hyun-Suk3; Hyun, Yu-Kyung3 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:21页码:8803-8818 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; USA |
英文摘要 | This study examines the representation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and its teleconnection in boreal winter in the Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), using 20 years (1991-2010) of hindcast data. The sensitivity of the performance to the polarity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also investigated. The real-time multivariate MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon is used to assess MJO prediction skill while intraseasonal 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies are used to evaluate the MJO teleconnection. GloSea5 exhibits significant MJO prediction skill up to 25 days of forecast lead time. MJO prediction skill in GloSea5 also depends on initial MJO phases, with relatively enhanced (degraded) performance when the initial MJO phase is 2 or 3 (8 or 1) during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast period. GloSea5 depicts the observed MJO teleconnection patterns in the extratropics realistically up to 2 weeks albeit weaker than the observed. The ENSO-associated basic-state changes in the tropics and in the midlatitudes are reasonably represented in GloSea5. MJO prediction skill during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast is slightly higher in neutral and La Nina years than in El Nino years, especially in the upper-level zonal wind anomalies. Presumably because of the better representation of MJO-related tropical heating anomalies, the Northern Hemispheric MJO teleconnection patterns in neutral and La Nina years are considerably better than those in El Nino years. |
英文关键词 | Madden-Julian oscillation Forecast verification skill |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448509300001 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; GLOBAL COUPLED MODEL ; AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS ; 1997-98 EL-NINO ; FORECAST SYSTEM ; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION ; PREDICTABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE ; PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20662 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ulsan Natl Inst Sci & Technol, Ulsan, South Korea; 2.Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 3.Natl Inst Meteorol Res, Climate Res Lab, Jeju, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kim, Hyerim,Lee, Myong-In,Kim, Daehyun,et al. Representation of Boreal Winter MJO and Its Teleconnection in a Dynamical Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(21):8803-8818. |
APA | Kim, Hyerim,Lee, Myong-In,Kim, Daehyun,Kang, Hyun-Suk,&Hyun, Yu-Kyung.(2018).Representation of Boreal Winter MJO and Its Teleconnection in a Dynamical Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(21),8803-8818. |
MLA | Kim, Hyerim,et al."Representation of Boreal Winter MJO and Its Teleconnection in a Dynamical Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.21(2018):8803-8818. |
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