Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0885.1 |
The Impact of Climate Change on Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States: Insight from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling | |
Hoogewind, Kimberly A.1; Baldwin, Michael E.1; Trapp, Robert J.2 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study explores the potential impact anthropogenic climate change may have upon hazardous convective weather (HCW; i.e., tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts) in the United States. Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, high-resolution (4 km) dynamically downscaled simulations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), are produced for a historical (1971-2000) and future (2071-2100) period. Synthetic HCW day climatologies are created using upward vertical velocity (UVV) exceeding 22 m s(-1) as a proxy for HCW occurrence and subsequently compared to the environmental approach of estimating changes in daily frequency of convective environments favorable for HCW (NDSEV) from the driving climate model. Results from the WRF simulations demonstrate that the proxy for HCW becomes more frequent by the end of the twenty-first century, with the greatest absolute increases in daily frequency occurring during the spring and summer. Compared to NDSEV from GFDL CM3, both approaches suggest a longer HCW season, perhaps lengthening by more than a month. The change in environmental estimates are 2-4 times larger than that gauged from WRF; further analyses show that the conditional probability of HCW given NDSEV declines during summer for much of the central United States, a result that may be attributed to both an increase in the magnitude of convective inhibition (CIN) and decreased forcing for ascent, hindering convective initiation. Such an outcome supports the motivation for continued use of dynamical downscaling to overcome the limitations of the GCM-based environmental analysis. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423492500017 |
WOS关键词 | YAMADA LEVEL-3 MODEL ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ; PART I ; PREDICTION ; IMPLEMENTATION ; PRECIPITATION ; ENVIRONMENTS ; SIMULATIONS ; GENERATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20636 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA; 2.Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hoogewind, Kimberly A.,Baldwin, Michael E.,Trapp, Robert J.. The Impact of Climate Change on Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States: Insight from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(24). |
APA | Hoogewind, Kimberly A.,Baldwin, Michael E.,&Trapp, Robert J..(2017).The Impact of Climate Change on Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States: Insight from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(24). |
MLA | Hoogewind, Kimberly A.,et al."The Impact of Climate Change on Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States: Insight from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.24(2017). |
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