GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0631.1
Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.
2018-05-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:10页码:3921-3942
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Emergent constraints are quantities that are observable from current measurements and have skill predicting future climate. This study explores 19 previously proposed emergent constraints related to equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the global-average equilibrium surface temperature response to CO2 doubling). Several constraints are shown to be closely related, emphasizing the importance for careful understanding of proposed constraints. A new method is presented for decomposing correlation between an emergent constraint and ECS into terms related to physical processes and geographical regions. Using this decomposition, one can determine whether the processes and regions explaining correlation with ECS correspond to the physical explanation offered for the constraint. Shortwave cloud feedback is generally found to be the dominant contributor to correlations with ECS because it is the largest source of intermodel spread in ECS. In all cases, correlation results from interaction between a variety of terms, reflecting the complex nature of ECS and the fact that feedback terms and forcing are themselves correlated with each other. For 4 of the 19 constraints, the originally proposed explanation for correlation is borne out by our analysis. These four constraints all predict relatively high climate sensitivity. The credibility of six other constraints is called into question owing to correlation with ECS coming mainly from unexpected sources and/or lack of robustness to changes in ensembles. Another six constraints lack a testable explanation and hence cannot be confirmed. The fact that this study casts doubt upon more constraints than it confirms highlights the need for caution when identifying emergent constraints from small ensembles.


英文关键词Climate change Climate sensitivity Feedback Statistics Climate models
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000430540200009
WOS关键词CLOUD FEEDBACK ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS ; MODEL SIMULATIONS ; SPATIAL-PATTERN ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; SEASONAL CYCLE ; SOUTHERN-OCEAN ; SPREAD ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20528
专题气候变化
作者单位Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Caldwell, Peter M.,Zelinka, Mark D.,Klein, Stephen A.. Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(10):3921-3942.
APA Caldwell, Peter M.,Zelinka, Mark D.,&Klein, Stephen A..(2018).Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(10),3921-3942.
MLA Caldwell, Peter M.,et al."Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.10(2018):3921-3942.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Caldwell, Peter M.]的文章
[Zelinka, Mark D.]的文章
[Klein, Stephen A.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Caldwell, Peter M.]的文章
[Zelinka, Mark D.]的文章
[Klein, Stephen A.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Caldwell, Peter M.]的文章
[Zelinka, Mark D.]的文章
[Klein, Stephen A.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。