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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0667.1 |
The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity | |
Lewis, Nicholas; Curry, Judith | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:15页码:6051-6071 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Recent revisions to greenhouse gas forcing and post-1990 ozone and aerosol forcing estimates are incorporated and the forcing data extended from 2011 to 2016. Reflecting recent evidence against strong aerosol forcing, its AR5 uncertainty lower bound is increased slightly. Using an 1869-82 base period and a 2007-16 final period, which are well matched for volcanic activity and influence from internal variability, medians are derived for ECS of 1.50 K (5%-95% range: 1.05-2.45 K) and for TCR of 1.20 K (5%-95% range: 0.9-1.7 K). These estimates both have much lower upper bounds than those from a predecessor study using AR5 data ending in 2011. Using infilled, globally complete temperature data give slightly higher estimates: a median of 1.66 K for ECS (5%-95% range: 1.15-2.7 K) and 1.33 K for TCR (5%-95% range: 1.0-1.9 K). These ECS estimates reflect climate feedbacks over the historical period, assumed to be time invariant. Allowing for possible time-varying climate feedbacks increases the median ECS estimate to 1.76 K (5%-95% range: 1.2-3.1 K), using infilled temperature data. Possible biases from non-unit forcing efficacy, temperature estimation issues, and variability in sea surface temperature change patterns are examined and found to be minor when using globally complete temperature data. These results imply that high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period. |
英文关键词 | Forcing Climate sensitivity Feedback |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437092900004 |
WOS关键词 | ENERGY BUDGET CONSTRAINTS ; AEROSOL ; MODELS ; TEMPERATURE ; CARBON ; FEEDBACK ; SIMULATIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; LIFETIME ; AIR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20525 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Climate Forecast Applicat Network, Reno, NV USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lewis, Nicholas,Curry, Judith. The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(15):6051-6071. |
APA | Lewis, Nicholas,&Curry, Judith.(2018).The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(15),6051-6071. |
MLA | Lewis, Nicholas,et al."The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.15(2018):6051-6071. |
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