Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1 |
Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding | |
Richardson, T. B.1; Forster, P. M.1; Andrews, T.2; Boucher, O.3; Faluvegi, G.4,5; Flaeschner, D.6; Hodnebrog, O.7; Kasoar, M.8; Kirkevag, A.9; Lamarque, J. -F.10; Myhre, G.7; Olivie, D.9; Samset, B. H.7; Shawki, D.8; Shindell, D.11; Takemura, T.12; Voulgarakis, A.8 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:23页码:9641-9657 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; France; USA; Germany; Norway; Japan |
英文摘要 | The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Hydrologic cycle Precipitation Aerosols Greenhouse gases Radiative forcing |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450055800001 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RESPONSES ; CIRCULATION ; CONSTRAINT ; PATTERNS ; AEROSOLS ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20517 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Leeds, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Sorbonne Univ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France; 4.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 5.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA; 6.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 7.Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway; 8.Imperial Coll London, London, England; 9.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway; 10.NCAR UCAR, Boulder, CO USA; 11.Duke Univ, Durham, NC USA; 12.Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka, Fukuoka, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richardson, T. B.,Forster, P. M.,Andrews, T.,et al. Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(23):9641-9657. |
APA | Richardson, T. B..,Forster, P. M..,Andrews, T..,Boucher, O..,Faluvegi, G..,...&Voulgarakis, A..(2018).Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(23),9641-9657. |
MLA | Richardson, T. B.,et al."Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.23(2018):9641-9657. |
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