Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0383.1 |
A Theory for the Seasonal Predictability Barrier: Threshold, Timing, and Intensity | |
Liu, Zhengyu1; Jin, Yishuai2; Rong, Xinyao3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:2页码:423-443 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | A theory is developed in a stochastic climate model for understanding the general features of the seasonal predictability barrier (PB), which is characterized by a band of maximum decline in autocorrelation function phase-locked to a particular season. Our theory determines the forcing threshold, timing, and intensity of the seasonal PB as a function of the damping rate and seasonal forcing. A seasonal PB is found to be an intrinsic feature of a stochastic climate system forced by either seasonal growth rate or seasonal noise forcing. A PB is generated when the seasonal forcing, relative to the damping rate, exceeds a modest threshold. Once generated, all the PBs occur in the same calendar month, forming a seasonal PB. The PB season is determined by the decline of the seasonal forcing as well as the delayed response associated with damping. As such, for a realistic weak damping, the PB season is locked close to the minimum SST variance under the seasonal growth-rate forcing, but after the minimum SST variance under the seasonal noise forcing. The intensity of the PB is determined mainly by the amplitude of the seasonal forcing. The theory is able to explain the general features of the seasonal PB of the observed SST variability over the world. In the tropics, a seasonal PB is generated mainly by a strong seasonal growth rate, whereas in the extratropics a seasonal PB is generated mainly by a strong seasonal noise forcing. Our theory provides a general framework for the understanding of the seasonal PB of climate variability. |
英文关键词 | Climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000454202900003 |
WOS关键词 | STOCHASTIC CLIMATE MODELS ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; PERSISTENCE ; PREDICTION ; ANOMALIES ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20512 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ohio State Univ, Dept Geog, Atmospher Sci Program, Columbus, OH 43210 USA; 2.Peking Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Zhengyu,Jin, Yishuai,Rong, Xinyao. A Theory for the Seasonal Predictability Barrier: Threshold, Timing, and Intensity[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(2):423-443. |
APA | Liu, Zhengyu,Jin, Yishuai,&Rong, Xinyao.(2019).A Theory for the Seasonal Predictability Barrier: Threshold, Timing, and Intensity.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(2),423-443. |
MLA | Liu, Zhengyu,et al."A Theory for the Seasonal Predictability Barrier: Threshold, Timing, and Intensity".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.2(2019):423-443. |
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