Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1811463116 |
Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century | |
Rojas, Maisa1,2; Lambert, Fabrice2,3; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian4,5,6; Challinor, Andrew J.4,5 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 116期号:14页码:6673-6678 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Chile; England; Colombia |
英文摘要 | A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability-the time of emergence (TOE)-is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1-14% (3-31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically. |
英文关键词 | climate change natural variability precipitation agriculture CMIP5 |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463069900032 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; YIELDS ; MAIZE |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/205083 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Chile, Dept Geophys, Santiago 8370449, Chile; 2.Univ Chile, CR2, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago 8370449, Chile; 3.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Phys Geog, Santiago 7820436, Chile; 4.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 5.CIAT, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secu, Cali 763537, Colombia; 6.CIAT, Int Ctr Trop Agr, Cali 763537, Colombia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rojas, Maisa,Lambert, Fabrice,Ramirez-Villegas, Julian,et al. Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019,116(14):6673-6678. |
APA | Rojas, Maisa,Lambert, Fabrice,Ramirez-Villegas, Julian,&Challinor, Andrew J..(2019).Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,116(14),6673-6678. |
MLA | Rojas, Maisa,et al."Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 116.14(2019):6673-6678. |
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