Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1813233115 |
Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future | |
Fasullo, John T.1; Nerem, R. Steven2 | |
2018-12-18 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:51页码:12944-12949 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The satellite altimeter record has provided an unprecedented database for understanding sea-level rise and has recently reached a major milestone at 25 years in length. A challenge now exists in understanding its broader significance and its consequences for sea-level rise in the coming decades and beyond. A key question is whether the pattern of altimeter-era change is representative of longer-term trends driven by anthropogenic forcing. In this work, two multimember climate ensembles, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Earth System Model Version 2M (ESM2M), are used to estimate patterns of forced change [also known as the forced response (FR)] and their magnitudes relative to internal variability. It is found that the spatial patterns of 1993-2018 trends in the ensembles correlate significantly with the contemporaneous FRs (0.55 +/- 0.10 in the CESM and 0.61 +/- 0.09 in the ESM2M) and the 1950-2100 FRs (0.43 +/- 0.10 in the CESM and 0.51 +/- 0.11 in the ESM2M). Unforced runs for each model show such correlations to be extremely unlikely to have arisen by chance, indicating an emergence of both the altimeter-era and long-term FRs and suggesting a similar emergence in nature. Projected patterns of the FR over the coming decades resemble those simulated during the altimeter era, suggesting a continuation of the forced pattern of change in nature in the coming decades. Notably, elevated rates of rise are projected to continue in regions that are susceptible to tropical cyclones, exacerbating associated impacts in a warming climate. |
英文关键词 | sea level climate variability climate change satellite altimetry |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453529800049 |
WOS关键词 | OCEAN DYNAMICS ; CMIP5 ; VARIABILITY ; ENSEMBLE ; TREND ; SHIFT |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/205033 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Boulder, CO 80301 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Colorado Ctr Astrodynam Res, Smead Aerosp Engn Sci, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fasullo, John T.,Nerem, R. Steven. Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(51):12944-12949. |
APA | Fasullo, John T.,&Nerem, R. Steven.(2018).Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(51),12944-12949. |
MLA | Fasullo, John T.,et al."Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.51(2018):12944-12949. |
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