Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1718031115 |
Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks | |
Tigchelaar, Michelle1; Battisti, David S.1; Naylor, Rosamond L.2; Ray, Deepak K.3 | |
2018-06-26 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:26页码:6644-6649 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Meeting the global food demand of roughly 10 billion people by the middle of the 21st century will become increasingly challenging as the Earth's climate continues to warm. Earlier studies suggest that once the optimum growing temperature is exceeded, mean crop yields decline and the variability of yield increases even if interannual climate variability remains unchanged. Here, we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with future temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in the world's major maize-producing and -exporting countries under 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C of global warming. We find that as the global mean temperature increases, absent changes in temperature variability or breeding gains in heat tolerance, the coefficient of variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere to values much larger than present-day values. This higher CV is due both to an increase in the SD of yields and a decrease in mean yields. For the top four maize-exporting countries, which account for 87% of global maize exports, the probability that they have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% in any given year is presently virtually zero, but it increases to 7% under 2 degrees C warming and 86% under 4 degrees C warming. Our results portend rising instability in global grain trade and international grain prices, affecting especially the similar to 800 million people living in extreme poverty who are most vulnerable to food price spikes. They also underscore the urgency of investments in breeding for heat tolerance. |
英文关键词 | climate change food security price volatility |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436245000059 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; YIELDS ; HEAT ; VOLATILITY ; STRESS ; RICE ; ERA |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204940 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 3.Univ Minnesota, Inst Environm, St Paul, MN 55108 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tigchelaar, Michelle,Battisti, David S.,Naylor, Rosamond L.,et al. Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(26):6644-6649. |
APA | Tigchelaar, Michelle,Battisti, David S.,Naylor, Rosamond L.,&Ray, Deepak K..(2018).Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(26),6644-6649. |
MLA | Tigchelaar, Michelle,et al."Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.26(2018):6644-6649. |
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