Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1719903115 |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change | |
McGuire, A. David1; Lawrence, David M.2; Koven, Charles3; Clein, Joy S.4; Burke, Eleanor5; Chen, Guangsheng6,7; Jafarov, Elchin8; MacDougall, Andrew H.9; Marchenko, Sergey10; Nicolsky, Dmitry10; Peng, Shushi11,12; Rinke, Annette13,14; Ciais, Philippe11; Gouttevin, Isabelle12,15; Hayes, Daniel J.6,16; Ji, Duoying14; Krinner, Gerhard12; Moore, John C.14,17,18; Romanovsky, Vladimir10,19; Schaedel, Christina20,21; Schaefer, Kevin22; Schuur, Edward A. G.20,21; Zhuang, Qianlai23 | |
2018-04-10 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:15页码:3882-3887 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; Canada; France; Germany; Peoples R China; Finland; Russia |
英文摘要 | We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km(2) for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km(2) for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10(15)-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. |
英文关键词 | climate system permafrost dynamics carbon dynamics permafrost carbon-climate feedback soil carbon |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429540300062 |
WOS关键词 | ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES ; NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; THERMAL DYNAMICS ; SOIL CARBON ; SENSITIVITY ; VEGETATION ; NITROGEN ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204897 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, US Geol Survey, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA; 3.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Lawrence, KS USA; 4.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA; 5.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 6.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA; 7.Auburn Univ, Int Ctr Climate & Global Change Res, Auburn, AL 36849 USA; 8.Los Alamos Natl Lab, Earth & Environm Sci Div, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA; 9.St Francis Xavier Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Antigonish, NS B2G 2W5, Canada; 10.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Geophys Inst, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA; 11.Univ Versailles Saint Quentin en Yvelines, CNRS, UMR8212, Lab Sci Climat & Environnem Commissariat Energie, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette, France; 12.Univ Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Inst Geosci Environm, F-38000 Grenoble, France; 13.Alfred Wegener Inst, Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 14.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 15.Irstea, Hydrol Hydraul Res Unit, F-69616 Villeurbanne, France; 16.Univ Maine, Sch Forest Resources, Orono, ME 04469 USA; 17.Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, Rovaniemi 96101, Finland; 18.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 19.Tyumen State Univ, Int Inst Cryol & Cryosphy, Tyumen 625003, Russia; 20.No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; 21.No Arizona Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; 22.Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO 80303 USA; 23.Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McGuire, A. David,Lawrence, David M.,Koven, Charles,et al. Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(15):3882-3887. |
APA | McGuire, A. David.,Lawrence, David M..,Koven, Charles.,Clein, Joy S..,Burke, Eleanor.,...&Zhuang, Qianlai.(2018).Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(15),3882-3887. |
MLA | McGuire, A. David,et al."Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.15(2018):3882-3887. |
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