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DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1709031115 |
Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate | |
Sandeep, S.1,2; Ajayamohan, R. S.1; Boos, William R.3,4; Sabin, T. P.1,5; Praveen, V.1 | |
2018-03-13 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:11页码:2681-2686 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | U Arab Emirates; India; USA |
英文摘要 | Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its similar to 600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario. The distribution of LPS genesis shifts poleward as it weakens, with oceanic genesis decreasing by similar to 60% and continental genesis increasing by similar to 10%; over land the increase in storm counts is accompanied by a shift toward lower storm wind speeds. The weakening and poleward shift of the genesis distribution in a warmer climate are confirmed and attributed, via a statistical model, to the reduction and poleward shift of low-level absolute vorticity over the monsoon region, which in turn are robust features of most coupled model projections. The poleward shift in LPS activity results in an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events over northern India. |
英文关键词 | monsoon low-pressure systems climate change precipitation extremes |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427245400052 |
WOS关键词 | LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS ; EXTREME RAIN EVENTS ; BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY ; INCREASING TREND ; DEPRESSIONS ; SIMULATIONS ; PRECIPITATION ; DISTURBANCES ; ENVIRONMENT ; NUMBER |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204878 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.New York Univ Abu Dhabi, Ctr Prototype Climate Modeling, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates; 2.Indian Inst Technol Delhi, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India; 3.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 4.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 5.Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Ctr Climate Change Res, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sandeep, S.,Ajayamohan, R. S.,Boos, William R.,et al. Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(11):2681-2686. |
APA | Sandeep, S.,Ajayamohan, R. S.,Boos, William R.,Sabin, T. P.,&Praveen, V..(2018).Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(11),2681-2686. |
MLA | Sandeep, S.,et al."Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.11(2018):2681-2686. |
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