Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1705349115 |
Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change | |
Sun, Fubao1,2,3,4,5; Roderick, Michael L.3,4,6; Farquhar, Graham D.3,4 | |
2018-03-06 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:10页码:2305-2310 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Australia |
英文摘要 | There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P) database (1940-2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change. |
英文关键词 | precipitation stationarity variance |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426671900052 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION TRENDS ; WATER MANAGEMENT ; DROUGHT ; PERSISTENCE ; REGIONS ; EVENTS ; DEAD |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204872 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Hexi Univ, Ecol Inst Qilian Mt, Zhangye City 734000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 3.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; 4.Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Climate Sys, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 101407, Peoples R China; 6.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Fubao,Roderick, Michael L.,Farquhar, Graham D.. Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(10):2305-2310. |
APA | Sun, Fubao,Roderick, Michael L.,&Farquhar, Graham D..(2018).Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(10),2305-2310. |
MLA | Sun, Fubao,et al."Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.10(2018):2305-2310. |
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