资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) activate in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), exhibiting distinct seasonal contrasts in active regions and propagating features. The seasonal northward migration of the ISO activity initiates in spring-early summer, composed of two stages. Strong ISO activity first penetrates into the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) around mid-April, and then extends to the northern Arabian Sea (AS) by mid-May. The northward-propagating ISOs (NPISOs) during their initiation periods, which are referred to as the primary northward-propagating (PNP) events, are analyzed with regard to the BoB and the AS, respectively. In terms of the BoB PNP event, the northward branch could be observed only in the BoB, and the eastward movement is still clear as the winter ISOs. For the AS PNP event, a strong northward branch spreads across the wider northern IO, as obvious as the summer ISOs. The relative roles of the seasonal environmental fields in modulating the PNP events are diagnosed based on a 2.5-layer atmospheric model. The results indicate that the seasonal variations of the surface moisture dominantly regulate the BoB PNP event, while both the surface moisture and the vertical wind shear are necessary for the AS PNP event. Additionally, the leading BoB PNP event is hypothesized to potentially act as a precondition of the following AS PNP event in terms of their internal ISO reinitiation processes and in terms of creating a favorable easterly shear environment in the northern IO.