Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1617940114 |
Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change | |
Imbach, Pablo1,2; Fung, Emily2; Hannah, Lee3; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E.1; Roubik, David W.4; Ricketts, Taylor H.5; Harvey, Celia A.3; Donatti, Camila I.3; Laderach, Peter1; Locatelli, Bruno6,7; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.3 | |
2017-09-26 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:39页码:10438-10442 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Vietnam; Costa Rica; USA; Panama; France; Peru |
英文摘要 | Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffeesuitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions. |
英文关键词 | coffee adaptation strategies smallholder farms suitability modeling pollination |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411704000052 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL FOREST ; FRUIT-SET ; LANDSCAPES ; DIVERSITY ; OPPORTUNITIES ; AGRICULTURE ; ADAPTATION ; MITIGATION ; INCREASES ; ECOSYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204793 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Int Ctr Trop Agr CIAT, Climate Change Agr & Food Secur CCAFS, Hanoi 100000, Vietnam; 2.Trop Agr Res & Higher Educ Ctr, Climate Change Program, Environm Modelling Lab, Turrialba 30501, Costa Rica; 3.Conservat Int, Moore Ctr Sci, Arlington, VA 22202 USA; 4.Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Balboa 084303092, Panama; 5.Univ Vermont, Gund Inst Environm, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Burlington, VT 05405 USA; 6.Agr Res Dev CIRAD, Res Unit Forests & Soc, F-34398 Montpellier, France; 7.Ctr Int Forestry Res CIFOR, Climate Change Team, Lima 15024, Peru |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Imbach, Pablo,Fung, Emily,Hannah, Lee,et al. Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(39):10438-10442. |
APA | Imbach, Pablo.,Fung, Emily.,Hannah, Lee.,Navarro-Racines, Carlos E..,Roubik, David W..,...&Roehrdanz, Patrick R..(2017).Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(39),10438-10442. |
MLA | Imbach, Pablo,et al."Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.39(2017):10438-10442. |
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