Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1705293114 |
Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico | |
Scavia, Donald1,2; Bertani, Isabella1; Obenour, Daniel R.3; Turner, R. Eugene4; Forrest, David R.5; Katin, Alexey3 | |
2017-08-15 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:33页码:8823-8828 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A large region of low-dissolved-oxygen bottom waters (hypoxia) forms nearly every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico because of nutrient inputs from theMississippi River Basin andwater column stratification. Policymakers developed goals to reduce the area of hypoxic extent because of its ecological, economic, and commercial fisheries impacts. However, the goals remain elusive after 30 y of research and monitoring and 15 y of goal-setting and assessment because there has been little change in river nitrogen concentrations. An intergovernmental Task Force recently extended to 2035 the deadline for achieving the goal of a 5,000-km(2) 5-y average hypoxic zone and set an interim load target of a 20% reduction of the spring nitrogen loading from the Mississippi River by 2025 as part of their adaptive management process. The Task Force has asked modelers to reassess the loading reduction required to achieve the 2035 goal and to determine the effect of the 20% interim load reduction. Here, we address both questions using a probabilistic ensemble of four substantially different hypoxia models. Our results indicate that, under typical weather conditions, a 59% reduction in Mississippi River nitrogen load is required to reduce hypoxic area to 5,000 km(2). The interim goal of a 20% load reduction is expected to produce an 18% reduction in hypoxic area over the long term. However, due to substantial interannual variability, a 25% load reduction is required before there is 95% certainty of observing any hypoxic area reduction between consecutive 5-y assessment periods. |
英文关键词 | ensemble modeling hypoxia Gulf of Mexico nitrogen-loading targets |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000407610400069 |
WOS关键词 | REDUCING NITROGEN EXPORT ; MISSISSIPPI RIVER ; WATER-QUALITY ; ORGANIC-MATTER ; OXYGEN-DEMAND ; DEAD ZONE ; NUTRIENT ; EUTROPHICATION ; DYNAMICS ; SCIENCE |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204764 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Michigan, Graham Sustainabil Inst, Ann Arbor, MI 48104 USA; 2.Univ Michigan, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, Ann Arbor, MI 48104 USA; 3.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA; 4.Louisiana State Univ, Coll Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA; 5.Virginia Inst Marine Sci, Coll William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA 23062 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Scavia, Donald,Bertani, Isabella,Obenour, Daniel R.,et al. Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(33):8823-8828. |
APA | Scavia, Donald,Bertani, Isabella,Obenour, Daniel R.,Turner, R. Eugene,Forrest, David R.,&Katin, Alexey.(2017).Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(33),8823-8828. |
MLA | Scavia, Donald,et al."Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.33(2017):8823-8828. |
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