Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1616020114 |
Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl | |
Turner, Alexander J.1; Frankenbergb, Christian2,3; Wennberg, Paul O.2; Jacob, Daniel J.1 | |
2017-05-23 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:21页码:5367-5372 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Methane is the second strongest anthropogenic greenhouse gas and its atmospheric burden has more than doubled since 1850. Methane concentrations stabilized in the early 2000s and began increasing again in 2007. Neither the stabilization nor the recent growth are well understood, as evidenced by multiple competing hypotheses in recent literature. Here we use a multispecies twobox model inversion to jointly constrain 36 y of methane sources and sinks, using ground-based measurements of methane, methyl chloroform, and the C-13/C-12 ratio in atmospheric methane (delta(CH4)-C-13) from 1983 through 2015. We find that the problem, as currently formulated, is underdetermined and solutions obtained in previous work are strongly dependent on prior assumptions. Based on our analysis, the mathematically most likely explanation for the renewed growth in atmospheric methane, counterintuitively, involves a 25-Tg/y decrease in methane emissions from 2003 to 2016 that is offset by a 7% decrease in global mean hydroxyl (OH) concentrations, the primary sink for atmospheric methane, over the same period. However, we are still able to fit the observations if we assume that OH concentrations are time invariant (as much of the previous work has assumed) and we then find solutions that are largely consistent with other proposed hypotheses for the renewed growth of atmospheric methane since 2007. We conclude that the current surface observing system does not allow unambiguous attribution of the decadal trends in methane without robust constraints on OH variability, which currently rely purely on methyl chloroform data and its uncertain emissions estimates. |
英文关键词 | methane renewed growth hydroxyl oxidative capacity troposphere |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000401797800037 |
WOS关键词 | NATURAL-GAS PRODUCTION ; FOSSIL-FUEL ; GROWTH-RATE ; EMISSIONS ; ETHANE ; OIL ; ACCUMULATION ; VARIABILITY ; GENERATION ; INCREASE |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204718 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Harvard Univ, Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 2.CALTECH, Div Geol & Planetary Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 3.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Turner, Alexander J.,Frankenbergb, Christian,Wennberg, Paul O.,et al. Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(21):5367-5372. |
APA | Turner, Alexander J.,Frankenbergb, Christian,Wennberg, Paul O.,&Jacob, Daniel J..(2017).Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(21),5367-5372. |
MLA | Turner, Alexander J.,et al."Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.21(2017):5367-5372. |
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