Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1618082114 |
Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events | |
Noah S. Diffenbaugh; Deepti Singh; Justin S. Mankin; Daniel E. Horton; Daniel L. Swain; Danielle Touma; Allison Charland; Yunjie Liu; Matz Haugen; Michael Tsiang; and Bala Rajaratnam | |
2017-04-24 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:19页码:4881-4886 |
英文摘要 | AbstractEfforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. |
英文关键词 | event attribution climate extremes climate change global warming |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204702 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Noah S. Diffenbaugh,Deepti Singh,Justin S. Mankin,et al. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(19):4881-4886. |
APA | Noah S. Diffenbaugh.,Deepti Singh.,Justin S. Mankin.,Daniel E. Horton.,Daniel L. Swain.,...&and Bala Rajaratnam.(2017).Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(19),4881-4886. |
MLA | Noah S. Diffenbaugh,et al."Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.19(2017):4881-4886. |
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