Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1617526114 |
Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress | |
Matthews, Tom K. R.1; Wilby, Robert L.2; Murphy, Conor3 | |
2017-04-11 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:15页码:3861-3866 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Ireland |
英文摘要 | In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 degrees C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 degrees C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 degrees C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations. |
英文关键词 | climate change heat stress megacities extreme heat CMIP5 |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000398789800039 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACT ; ADAPTATION ; HEALTH |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204687 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Liverpool John Moores Univ, Sch Nat Sci & Psychol, Liverpool L3 3AF, Merseyside, England; 2.Univ Loughborough, Dept Geog, Loughborough LE11 3TU, Leics, England; 3.Maynooth Univ, Dept Geog, Irish Climate Anal & Res Units ICARUS, Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Matthews, Tom K. R.,Wilby, Robert L.,Murphy, Conor. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(15):3861-3866. |
APA | Matthews, Tom K. R.,Wilby, Robert L.,&Murphy, Conor.(2017).Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(15),3861-3866. |
MLA | Matthews, Tom K. R.,et al."Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.15(2017):3861-3866. |
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