Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR021192 |
Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach | |
Du, Erhu1,2; Cai, Ximing1,2; Sun, Zhiyong3; Minsker, Barbara4 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA; Australia |
英文摘要 | Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed. |
英文关键词 | flood evacuation agent-based modeling opinion dynamics social media |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000418736700029 |
WOS关键词 | OPINION DYNAMICS ; TRANSPORTATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; SENSITIVITY ; CASCADES ; WARNINGS ; TRANSIMS ; SCIENCE ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20447 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; 3.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Engn, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 4.Southern Methodist Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Dallas, TX USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Du, Erhu,Cai, Ximing,Sun, Zhiyong,et al. Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(11). |
APA | Du, Erhu,Cai, Ximing,Sun, Zhiyong,&Minsker, Barbara.(2017).Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(11). |
MLA | Du, Erhu,et al."Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.11(2017). |
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