资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a similar to 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a similar to 3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for similar to 250 k deaths and similar to 6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by similar to 80%, equating to a similar to 3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.