Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016WR019276 |
Statistical distributions for monthly aggregations of precipitation and streamflow in drought indicator applications | |
Svensson, Cecilia1; Hannaford, Jamie1; Prosdocimi, Ilaria1,2 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Drought indicators are used as triggers for action and so are the foundation of drought monitoring and early warning. The computation of drought indicators like the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) require a statistical probability distribution to be fitted to the observed data. Both precipitation and streamflow have a lower bound at zero, and their empirical distributions tend to have positive skewness. For deriving the SPI, the Gamma distribution has therefore often been a natural choice. The concept of the SSI is newer and there is no consensus regarding distribution. In the present study, twelve different probability distributions are fitted to streamflow and catchment average precipitation for four durations (1, 3, 6, and 12 months), for 121 catchments throughout the UK. The more flexible three- and four-parameter distributions generally do not have a lower bound at zero, and hence may attach some probability to values below zero. As a result, there is a censoring of the possible values of the calculated SPIs and SSIs. This can be avoided by using one of the bounded distributions, such as the reasonably flexible three-parameter Tweedie distribution, which has a lower bound (and potentially mass) at zero. The Tweedie distribution has only recently been applied to precipitation data, and only for a few sites. We find it fits both precipitation and streamflow data nearly as well as the best of the traditionally used three-parameter distributions, and should improve the accuracy of drought indices used for monitoring and early warning. |
英文关键词 | standardized precipitation index standardized streamflow index statistical distribution Tweedie distribution drought index UK |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000398568800002 |
WOS关键词 | DISPERSION MODEL DENSITIES ; INDEX ; SPI |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20423 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England; 2.Univ Bath, Dept Math Sci, Bath, Avon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Svensson, Cecilia,Hannaford, Jamie,Prosdocimi, Ilaria. Statistical distributions for monthly aggregations of precipitation and streamflow in drought indicator applications[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(2). |
APA | Svensson, Cecilia,Hannaford, Jamie,&Prosdocimi, Ilaria.(2017).Statistical distributions for monthly aggregations of precipitation and streamflow in drought indicator applications.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(2). |
MLA | Svensson, Cecilia,et al."Statistical distributions for monthly aggregations of precipitation and streamflow in drought indicator applications".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.2(2017). |
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