Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR020803 |
Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River | |
De Niel, J.1; Demaree, G.2; Willems, P.1 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium |
英文摘要 | Governments, policy makers, and water managers are pushed by recent socioeconomic developments such as population growth and increased urbanization inclusive of occupation of floodplains to impose very stringent regulations on the design of hydrological structures. These structures need to withstand storms with return periods typically ranging between 1,250 and 10,000 years. Such quantification involves extrapolations of systematically measured instrumental data, possibly complemented by quantitative and/or qualitative historical data and paleoflood data. The accuracy of the extrapolations is, however, highly unclear in practice. In order to evaluate extreme river peak flow extrapolation and accuracy, we studied historical and instrumental data of the past 500 years along the Meuse River. We moreover propose an alternative method for the estimation of the extreme value distribution of river peak flows, based on weather types derived by sea level pressure reconstructions. This approach results in a more accurate estimation of the tail of the distribution, where current methods are underestimating the design levels related to extreme high return periods. The design flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m(3) s(-1) for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 and 3,900 m(3) s(-1) for a traditional method and a previous study. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000418736000019 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; EUROPE ; MODELS ; INFORMATION ; PATTERNS ; RISK ; RECORDS ; TREND ; BASIN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20407 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Sect, Leuven, Belgium; 2.Royal Meteorol Inst Belgium, Brussels, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | De Niel, J.,Demaree, G.,Willems, P.. Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(10). |
APA | De Niel, J.,Demaree, G.,&Willems, P..(2017).Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(10). |
MLA | De Niel, J.,et al."Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.10(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论