Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR021975 |
Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations | |
Ragno, Elisa1; AghaKouchak, Amir1; Love, Charlotte A.1; Cheng, Linyin2; Vahedifard, Farshid3; Lima, Carlos H. R.4 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:3页码:1751-1764 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Brazil |
英文摘要 | During the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the atmosphere's water holding capacity. Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of extremes do not change significantly over time. However, in a warming climate, infrastructures and natural slopes will likely face more severe climatic conditions, with potential human and socioeconomical consequences. Here we outline a framework for quantifying climate change impacts based on the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events using bias corrected historical and multimodel projected precipitation extremes. The approach evaluates changes in rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and their uncertainty bounds using a nonstationary model based on Bayesian inference. We show that highly populated areas across the United States may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequent, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation. Since IDF curves are widely used for infrastructure design and risk assessment, the proposed framework offers an avenue for assessing resilience of infrastructure and landslide hazard in a warming climate. |
英文关键词 | extreme events nonstationary extreme value analysis climate change |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430364900019 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RETURN-PERIOD ; HEAVY-PRECIPITATION ; EXTREME RAINFALL ; IDF CURVES ; STATIONARITY ; RISK ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE ; ATTRIBUTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20399 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA 92697 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Mississippi State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Mississippi State, MS 39762 USA; 4.Univ Brasilia, Civil & Environm Engn, Brasilia, DF, Brazil |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ragno, Elisa,AghaKouchak, Amir,Love, Charlotte A.,et al. Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(3):1751-1764. |
APA | Ragno, Elisa,AghaKouchak, Amir,Love, Charlotte A.,Cheng, Linyin,Vahedifard, Farshid,&Lima, Carlos H. R..(2018).Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(3),1751-1764. |
MLA | Ragno, Elisa,et al."Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.3(2018):1751-1764. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论