Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR022792 |
The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis | |
Ferguson, C. R.1,2; Pan, M.3; Oki, Taikan4,5 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:10页码:7791-7819 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Japan |
英文摘要 | Changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of the global water cycle will constitute some of the greatest challenges to socioeconomic-environmental well-being in a warming world. Large multimodel, multiscenario intercomparisons such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment support our best estimates of projected climate change and associated uncertainty thereof. It is important to continually reevaluate how this information is synthesized and communicated and at what point it becomes actionable. In this study, we demonstrate a systematic and holistic framework for synthesizing multimodel ensemble projections of water availability at large river basin scale-the scale at which water resources are both managed and monitored. We identify statistically significant shifts in mean water availability at annual and monthly scales, its interannual variations, and its relative seasonality, as computed from CMIP5 historical (1976-2005) and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2070-2099) scenario multimodel ensemble output. Water availability is addressed separately through the lens of meteorologists (precipitation), hydrologists (runoff), and agriculturalists (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). We illustrate limitations in CMIP5 model representativeness through comparisons of atmosphere-only model (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) output against observational best estimates. And we find that warming-induced shifts in water availability projected by CMIP5 carbon-cycling Earth system models are comparatively less substantial than those projected by traditional general circulation models. As we show, knowing the seasonality of both projected changes and of the biased model background climatology onto which they are imposed is paramount to ensuring proper interpretation and ascribing confidence. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450726000037 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE ; ATMOSPHERE COUPLING EXPERIMENT ; RIVER-BASINS ; HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PART II ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; EVAPORATION ; UNCERTAINTY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20389 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.SUNY Albany, Atmospher Sci Res Ctr, Albany, NY 12222 USA; 2.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA; 3.Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 4.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources Engn, Tokyo, Japan; 5.United Nations Univ, Inst Adv Study Sustainabil, Shibuya, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ferguson, C. R.,Pan, M.,Oki, Taikan. The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(10):7791-7819. |
APA | Ferguson, C. R.,Pan, M.,&Oki, Taikan.(2018).The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(10),7791-7819. |
MLA | Ferguson, C. R.,et al."The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.10(2018):7791-7819. |
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