Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1 |
The Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to ENSO: How Well Do We Know It and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly? | |
Deser, Clara; Simpson, Isla R.; McKinnon, Karen A.; Phillips, Adam S. | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:13 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Application of random sampling techniques to composite differences between 18 El Nino and 14 La Nina events observed since 1920 reveals considerable uncertainty in both the pattern and amplitude of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter sea level pressure (SLP) response to ENSO. While the SLP responses over the North Pacific and North America are robust to sampling variability, their magnitudes can vary by a factor of 2; other regions, such as the Arctic, North Atlantic, and Europe are less robust in their SLP patterns, amplitudes, and statistical significance. The uncertainties on the observed ENSO composite are shown to arise mainly from atmospheric internal variability as opposed to ENSO diversity. These observational findings pose considerable challenges for the evaluation of ENSO teleconnections in models. An approach is proposed that incorporates both pattern and amplitude uncertainty in the observational target, allowing for discrimination between true model biases in the forced ENSO response and apparent model biases that arise from limited sampling of non-ENSO-related internal variability. Large initial-condition coupled model ensembles with realistic tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly evolution during 1920-2013 show similar levels of uncertainty in their ENSO teleconnections as found in observations. Because the set of ENSO events in each of the model composites is the same (and identical to that in observations), these uncertainties are entirely attributable to sampling fluctuations arising from internal variability, which is shown to originate from atmospheric processes. The initial-condition model ensembles thus inform the interpretation of the single observed ENSO composite and vice versa. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403096200011 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ; EL-NINO ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ; WAVE-PROPAGATION ; CLIMATE RESPONSE ; VARIABILITY ; WINTER ; STRATOSPHERE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20378 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Deser, Clara,Simpson, Isla R.,McKinnon, Karen A.,et al. The Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to ENSO: How Well Do We Know It and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(13). |
APA | Deser, Clara,Simpson, Isla R.,McKinnon, Karen A.,&Phillips, Adam S..(2017).The Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to ENSO: How Well Do We Know It and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(13). |
MLA | Deser, Clara,et al."The Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to ENSO: How Well Do We Know It and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.13(2017). |
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