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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0265.1 |
The Role of Circulation and Land Surface Conditions in Current and Future Australian Heat Waves | |
Gibson, Peter B.1,2; Pitman, Andrew J.1,2; Lorenz, Ruth3; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.1,2 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Understanding the physical drivers of heat waves is essential for improving short-term forecasts of individual events and long-term projections of heat waves under climate change. This study provides the first analysis of the influence of the large-scale circulation on Australian heat waves, conditional on the land surface conditions. Circulation types, sourced from reanalysis, are used to characterize the different large-scale circulation patterns that drive heat wave events across Australia. The importance of horizontal temperature advection is illustrated in these circulation patterns, and the pattern occurrence frequency is shown to reorganize through different modes of climate variability. It is further shown that the relative likelihood of a particular synoptic situation being associated with a heat wave is strongly modulated by the localized partitioning of available energy between surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (as measured through evaporative fraction) in many regions in reanalysis data. In particular, a several-fold increase in the likelihood of heat wave day occurrence is found during days of reduced evaporative fraction under favorable circulation conditions. The atmospheric circulation and land surface conditions linked to heat waves in reanalysis were then examined in the context of CMIP5 climate model projections. Large uncertainty was found to exist for many regions, especially in terms of the direction of future land surface changes and in terms of the magnitude of atmospheric circulation changes. Efforts to constrain uncertainty in both atmospheric and land surface processes in climate models, while challenging, should translate to more robust regional projections of heat waves. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423492500008 |
WOS关键词 | SELF-ORGANIZING MAPS ; CLIMATE MODELS ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20370 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 2.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gibson, Peter B.,Pitman, Andrew J.,Lorenz, Ruth,et al. The Role of Circulation and Land Surface Conditions in Current and Future Australian Heat Waves[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(24). |
APA | Gibson, Peter B.,Pitman, Andrew J.,Lorenz, Ruth,&Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E..(2017).The Role of Circulation and Land Surface Conditions in Current and Future Australian Heat Waves.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(24). |
MLA | Gibson, Peter B.,et al."The Role of Circulation and Land Surface Conditions in Current and Future Australian Heat Waves".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.24(2017). |
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