Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41467-017-02532-x |
Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake | |
Shcherbakov, Robert1,2; Zhuang, Jiancang3; Zoeller, Gert4; Ogata, Yosihiko3 | |
2019-09-06 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS |
ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Japan; Germany |
英文摘要 | The majority of earthquakes occur unexpectedly and can trigger subsequent sequences of events that can culminate in more powerful earthquakes. This self-exciting nature of seismicity generates complex clustering of earthquakes in space and time. Therefore, the problem of constraining the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake during a future time interval is of critical importance in mitigating earthquake hazard. We address this problem by developing a methodology to compute the probabilities for such extreme earthquakes to be above certain magnitudes. We combine the Bayesian methods with the extreme value theory and assume that the occurrence of earthquakes can be described by the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence process. We analyze in detail the application of this methodology to the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence. We are able to estimate retrospectively the probabilities of having large subsequent earthquakes during several stages of the evolution of this sequence. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000484599900001 |
WOS关键词 | MAXIMUM POSSIBLE MAGNITUDE ; SHORT-TERM ; FORESHOCKS ; SEISMICITY ; CATALOG ; HAZARD ; MODELS ; INCOMPLETENESS ; OCCURRENCES |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/203614 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Western Ontario, Dept Earth Sci, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada; 2.Univ Western Ontario, Dept Phys & Astron, London, ON N6A 3K7, Canada; 3.Inst Stat Math, 10-3 Midori Cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 1908562, Japan; 4.Univ Potsdam, Inst Math, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shcherbakov, Robert,Zhuang, Jiancang,Zoeller, Gert,et al. Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019,10. |
APA | Shcherbakov, Robert,Zhuang, Jiancang,Zoeller, Gert,&Ogata, Yosihiko.(2019).Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,10. |
MLA | Shcherbakov, Robert,et al."Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 10(2019). |
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