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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0456.1 |
Intermodel Uncertainty in the Change of ENSO's Amplitude under Global Warming: Role of the Response of Atmospheric Circulation to SST Anomalies | |
Ying, Jun1; Huang, Ping2,3,4; Lian, Tao1; Chen, Dake1 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:2页码:369-383 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the mechanism of the large intermodel uncertainty in the change of ENSO's amplitude under global warming based on 31 CMIP5 models. We find that the uncertainty in ENSO's amplitude is significantly correlated to that of the change in the response of atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Nino-3 region. This effect of the atmospheric response to SSTAs mainly influences the uncertainty in ENSO's amplitude during El Nino (EN) phases, but not during La Nina (LN) phases, showing pronounced nonlinearity. The effect of the relative SST warming and the present-day response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs are the two major contributors to the intermodel spread of the change in the atmospheric response to SSTAs, of which the latter is more important. On the one hand, models with a stronger (weaker) mean-state SST warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, relative to the tropical-mean warming, favor a larger (smaller) increase in the change in the response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs in the eastern equatorial Pacific during EN. On the other hand, models with a weaker (stronger) present-day response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs during EN tend to exhibit a larger (smaller) increase in the change under global warming. The result implies that an improved simulation of the present-day response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs could be effective in lowering the uncertainty in ENSO's amplitude change under global warming. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere-ocean interaction ENSO Greenhouse gases Tropical variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453905500002 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; EL-NINO TELECONNECTIONS ; TROPICAL PRECIPITATION ; PACIFIC-OCEAN ; LA-NINA ; PART I ; CMIP5 ; VARIABILITY ; FREQUENCY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20346 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 2, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ying, Jun,Huang, Ping,Lian, Tao,et al. Intermodel Uncertainty in the Change of ENSO's Amplitude under Global Warming: Role of the Response of Atmospheric Circulation to SST Anomalies[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(2):369-383. |
APA | Ying, Jun,Huang, Ping,Lian, Tao,&Chen, Dake.(2019).Intermodel Uncertainty in the Change of ENSO's Amplitude under Global Warming: Role of the Response of Atmospheric Circulation to SST Anomalies.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(2),369-383. |
MLA | Ying, Jun,et al."Intermodel Uncertainty in the Change of ENSO's Amplitude under Global Warming: Role of the Response of Atmospheric Circulation to SST Anomalies".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.2(2019):369-383. |
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