资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This study provides an assessment of the uncertainty in ocean surface (OS) freshwater budgets and variability using evaporation E and precipitation P from 10 atmospheric reanalyses, two combined satellite-based E2P products, and two observation-based salinity products. Three issues are examined: the uncertainty level in the OS freshwater budget in atmospheric reanalyses, the uncertainty structure and association with the global ocean wet/ dry zones, and the potential of salinity in ascribing the uncertainty in E-P. The products agree on the global mean pattern but differ considerably in magnitude. The OS freshwater budgets are 129 +/- 10 (8%) cmyr(-1) for E, 118 +/- 11 (9%) cmyr(-1) for P, and 11 +/- 4 (36%) cmyr(-1) for E-P, where the mean and error represent the ensemble mean and one standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The E -P uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty in E and P by a factor of 4 or more. The large uncertainty is attributed to P in the tropical wet zone. Most reanalyses tend to produce a wider tropical rainband when compared to satellite products, with the exception of two recent reanalyses that implement an observation-based correction for the model-generated P over land. The disparity in the width and the extent of seasonal migrations of the tropical wet zone causes a large spread in P, implying that the tropical moist physics and the realism of tropical rainfall remain a key challenge. Satellite salinity appears feasible to evaluate the fidelity of E - P variability in three tropical areas, where the uncertainty diagnosis has a global indication.