GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0652.1
How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?
Zhao, Tongtiegang1; Bennett, James C.1; Wang, Q. J.1; Schepen, Andrew2; Wood, Andrew W.3; Robertson, David E.1; Ramos, Maria-Helena4
2017-05-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:9
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia; USA; France
英文摘要

GCMs are used by many national weather services to produce seasonal outlooks of atmospheric and oceanic conditions and fluxes. Postprocessing is often a necessary step before GCM forecasts can be applied in practice. Quantile mapping (QM) is rapidly becoming the method of choice by operational agencies to postprocess raw GCM outputs. The authors investigate whether QM is appropriate for this task. Ensemble forecast postprocessing methods should aim to 1) correct bias, 2) ensure forecasts are reliable in ensemble spread, and 3) guarantee forecasts are at least as skillful as climatology, a property called "coherence.'' This study evaluates the effectiveness of QM in achieving these aims by applying it to precipitation forecasts from the POAMA model. It is shown that while QM is highly effective in correcting bias, it cannot ensure reliability in forecast ensemble spread or guarantee coherence. This is because QM ignores the correlation between raw ensemble forecasts and observations. When raw forecasts are not significantly positively correlated with observations, QM tends to produce negatively skillful forecasts. Even when there is significant positive correlation, QM cannot ensure reliability and coherence for postprocessed forecasts. Therefore, QM is not a fully satisfactory method for postprocessing forecasts where the issues of bias, reliability, and coherence pre-exist. Alternative postprocessing methods based on ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) are available that achieve not only unbiased but also reliable and coherent forecasts. This is shown with one such alternative, the Bayesian joint probability modeling approach.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000399680500007
WOS关键词MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS ; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; BIAS-CORRECTION ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLES ; CALIBRATION ; WEATHER ; RATIONALE ; RAINFALL ; SUCCESS ; SYSTEM
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20332
专题气候变化
作者单位1.CSIRO Land & Water, Clayton, Vic, Australia;
2.CSIRO Land & Water, Dutton Pk, Qld, Australia;
3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
4.Irstea, Hydrosyst & Bioproc Res Unit, Antony, France
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Tongtiegang,Bennett, James C.,Wang, Q. J.,et al. How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(9).
APA Zhao, Tongtiegang.,Bennett, James C..,Wang, Q. J..,Schepen, Andrew.,Wood, Andrew W..,...&Ramos, Maria-Helena.(2017).How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(9).
MLA Zhao, Tongtiegang,et al."How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.9(2017).
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