GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0272.1
Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows
Li, Chen1,2; Luo, Jing-Jia3; Li, Shuanglin4,5; Hendon, Harry3; Alves, Oscar3; MacLachlan, Craig6
2018-03-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:6页码:2445-2464
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; Australia; England
英文摘要

Predictive skills of the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer are assessed using three ensemble seasonal forecasting systems, including the coarse-resolution Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), the intermediate-resolution Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F), and the high-resolution seasonal prediction version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-S1) model. Retrospective prediction results suggest that prediction of the Somali CEF is more challenging than that of the MC CEF. While both the individual models and the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean show useful skill (with the anomaly correlation coefficient being above 0.5) in predicting the MC CEF up to 5-month lead, only ACCESS-S1 and the MME can skillfully predict the Somali CEF up to 2-month lead. Encouragingly, the CEF seesaw index (defined as the difference of the two CEFs as a measure of the negative phase relation between them) can be skillfully predicted up to 4-5 months ahead by SINTEX-F, ACCESS-S1, and the MME. Among the three models, the high-resolution ACCESS-S1 model generally shows the highest skill in predicting the individual CEFs, the CEF seesaw, as well as the CEF seesaw index-related precipitation anomaly pattern in Asia and northern Australia. Consistent with the strong influence of ENSO on the CEFs, the skill in predicting the CEFs depends on the model's ability in predicting not only the eastern Pacific SST anomaly but also the anomalous Walker circulation that brings ENSO's influence to bear on the CEFs.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000427447000023
WOS关键词ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; WATER-VAPOR TRANSPORT ; GLOBAL COUPLED MODEL ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; EL-NINO ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; ARABIAN-SEA ; OCEAN MODEL ; EAST-ASIA ; RAINFALL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20322
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;
3.Australian Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia;
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China;
5.China Univ Geosci, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China;
6.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Chen,Luo, Jing-Jia,Li, Shuanglin,et al. Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(6):2445-2464.
APA Li, Chen,Luo, Jing-Jia,Li, Shuanglin,Hendon, Harry,Alves, Oscar,&MacLachlan, Craig.(2018).Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(6),2445-2464.
MLA Li, Chen,et al."Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.6(2018):2445-2464.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Li, Chen]的文章
[Luo, Jing-Jia]的文章
[Li, Shuanglin]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Li, Chen]的文章
[Luo, Jing-Jia]的文章
[Li, Shuanglin]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Li, Chen]的文章
[Luo, Jing-Jia]的文章
[Li, Shuanglin]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。