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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0272.1 |
Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows | |
Li, Chen1,2; Luo, Jing-Jia3; Li, Shuanglin4,5; Hendon, Harry3; Alves, Oscar3; MacLachlan, Craig6 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:6页码:2445-2464 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Australia; England |
英文摘要 | Predictive skills of the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer are assessed using three ensemble seasonal forecasting systems, including the coarse-resolution Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), the intermediate-resolution Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F), and the high-resolution seasonal prediction version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-S1) model. Retrospective prediction results suggest that prediction of the Somali CEF is more challenging than that of the MC CEF. While both the individual models and the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean show useful skill (with the anomaly correlation coefficient being above 0.5) in predicting the MC CEF up to 5-month lead, only ACCESS-S1 and the MME can skillfully predict the Somali CEF up to 2-month lead. Encouragingly, the CEF seesaw index (defined as the difference of the two CEFs as a measure of the negative phase relation between them) can be skillfully predicted up to 4-5 months ahead by SINTEX-F, ACCESS-S1, and the MME. Among the three models, the high-resolution ACCESS-S1 model generally shows the highest skill in predicting the individual CEFs, the CEF seesaw, as well as the CEF seesaw index-related precipitation anomaly pattern in Asia and northern Australia. Consistent with the strong influence of ENSO on the CEFs, the skill in predicting the CEFs depends on the model's ability in predicting not only the eastern Pacific SST anomaly but also the anomalous Walker circulation that brings ENSO's influence to bear on the CEFs. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427447000023 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; WATER-VAPOR TRANSPORT ; GLOBAL COUPLED MODEL ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; EL-NINO ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; ARABIAN-SEA ; OCEAN MODEL ; EAST-ASIA ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20322 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Australian Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.China Univ Geosci, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China; 6.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Chen,Luo, Jing-Jia,Li, Shuanglin,et al. Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(6):2445-2464. |
APA | Li, Chen,Luo, Jing-Jia,Li, Shuanglin,Hendon, Harry,Alves, Oscar,&MacLachlan, Craig.(2018).Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(6),2445-2464. |
MLA | Li, Chen,et al."Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.6(2018):2445-2464. |
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